Same Macro Tape, Different Bid – Gold Absorbs Flows as Bitcoin Swings

By: crypto insight|2026/02/05 19:00:02

Key Takeaways:

Gold is experiencing significant demand growth, especially via ETFs and central banks, projecting a robust performance into 2026.
Bitcoin, despite its recovery, remains volatile and is treated differently than gold by financial desks during periods of market turbulence.
Predictive models foresee the price of gold surging to $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by strategic central-bank purchasing.
The financial markets exhibit distinct risk management strategies for gold and Bitcoin, emphasizing gold’s stability compared to Bitcoin’s volatility.

WEEX Crypto News, 2026-02-05 10:42:51 (today’s date, day, month, year)

The ongoing dynamics between traditional hedges such as gold and the relatively new entrant Bitcoin make for a fascinating comparative study in modern finance. Despite sharing the spotlight as contenders for value preservation and investment, their market behaviours and the underlying flows tell very different stories.

Gold Flows Tell the Story

Gold continues to be a bastion of stability amidst the shifting sands of macroeconomic uncertainties. Currently trading at $4,906 per ounce, gold’s steady appeal is backed by the intricate flow of investments, primarily through Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and increased central-bank purchases. World Gold Council data for 2025 outlines a remarkable uptick in gold’s allure, with global gold ETF holdings swelling by 801 tonnes, making it the second-strongest year on record. The notable surge in demand, particularly in the latter quarter, saw ETF inflows of 175 tonnes and physical bar-and-coin purchases reaching 420 tonnes—the most robust in twelve years.

In the United States, gold consumption portrays an equally compelling narrative. American appetite for gold increased by 679 tonnes in 2025—a substantial 140% year-on-year growth—with a significant portion allocated toward gold-backed ETFs, accumulating 437 tonnes. This increased allocation underlines a trend toward significant, long-term investment strategies, a phenomenon analysts describe as allocation-scale buying.

JPMorgan, in a significant forecast, anticipates that gold prices will ascend to $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026. This projection stems from a meticulous analysis of the rising demand from central banks, expected to reach 800 tonnes. Such strategic buying signifies a persistent bullish sentiment, spearheaded by analysts like Gregory Shearer, who accentuate the continuously robust demand and the expected alignment with macroeconomic tailwinds.

The structural mechanics within markets are also pivotal in amplifying gold’s movement. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has imposed stricter margin requirements for gold futures, increasing them from 6% to 8% for standard risk profiles. This increment, coupled with the heightened margins for silver, is indicative of the tightened grasp on the leveraged metals space, especially as daily price ranges exhibit more volatility.

How Desks Treat Gold vs. Bitcoin

The disparity in how financial desks treat gold versus Bitcoin reveals much about their respective roles in modern portfolios. Gold, buttressed by ETF absorption and central-bank purchase expectations, has the resilience to weather interest rate hikes and margin augmentations effectively. This strength is due in part to gold’s capacity for gradual accumulation with minimal tracking error against benchmarks, making it an attractive component for long-term strategic allocations.

Conversely, Bitcoin’s position is markedly different. As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $72,639, having recently bounced back from lower levels, yet it remains approximately 40% below its all-time high of $126,198. This gap can be attributed to Bitcoin’s inherent volatility and the kind of risk-profile that it presents within portfolios. Unlike gold, Bitcoin is often treated as a liquidity proxy or a high-beta asset, subject to liquidation in response to rising margins, real yield repricing, or a spike in equity volatility.

Therefore, when faced with market shocks, desks often prioritize cutting Bitcoin exposure first. This approach is in contrast with decisions regarding gold, which are typically informed by a quarterly asset-allocation committee rather than by immediate volatility or liquidity calculations. Bitcoin’s value-at-risk (VAR) approach exemplifies a risk-budget framework that aligns more closely with near-term liquidity management rather than long-gradient investment paths typically associated with gold.

Strategic Outlook and Central Bank Influence

Understanding the central banks’ role further elucidates gold’s strategic standing. Central banks acquire vast quantities of gold to stabilize their reserves amid geopolitical or economic uncertainties. This steady buying trend reflects an acknowledgment of gold’s enduring value, effectively insulating economies from currency fluctuations and inflationary pressures.

For Bitcoin, however, its utility primarily revolves around speculative trades or as an alternative digital asset, lacking the institutional depth that gold commands. Hence, in times of financial instability, gold tends to reclaim its status as a reliable hedge, whereas Bitcoin might see rapid and significant valuation swings due to its perception as a riskier, albeit potentially high-reward asset.

A Broader Context: Historical and Future Implications

Looking back at historical data, gold has consistently served as a dependable store of value and a hedge against economic uncertainty. Its resilience through decades of financial upheavals underscores its established position within economic infrastructures globally.

The trajectory for Bitcoin, although promising in terms of its technological innovation and acceptance, still navigates through a field of volatility and market skepticism. For Bitcoin to align itself more closely with gold, it necessitates a broader institutional acceptance and a shift in perception from a speculative asset to a stable store of value.

Recent Discussions and Future Directions

Current discourse highlights Bitcoin’s evolving narrative. The integration of blockchain technology with financial practices continues to garner attention, raising questions about future regulatory frameworks and their impact on the digital asset landscape. Meanwhile, the debates on social media platforms like Twitter and community forums suggest a vibrant ecosystem fueled by innovation and scrutiny alike.

Ultimately, the ongoing dialogue around these financial instruments offers insights into their roles within contemporary and future financial ecosystems. Gold, with its aura of timeless stability, continues to offer a safety net, while Bitcoin, the digital frontier, pushes the envelope of technological progress and financial exploration.

FAQs

How does gold’s current trading context affect future prices?

Gold’s price movement is largely influenced by the strategic buying from central banks and growing ETF inflows. Predictions for a price increase to $6,300 by the end of 2026 reflect expectations of continued demand and its resilience to economic uncertainties.

Why does Bitcoin remain volatile compared to gold?

Bitcoin’s volatility stems from its role as a high-beta asset used for speculative trading. Unlike gold’s slow and consistent value increase, Bitcoin’s price is heavily influenced by investor sentiment, market liquidity, and response to economic events, making it more prone to rapid price changes.

What impact do central banks have on gold prices?

Central banks significantly influence gold prices through their buying patterns. Large-scale purchases by central banks can lead to price increases as they remove supply from the market, showcasing confidence in gold as a stable reserve asset.

How do current margin requirements affect gold and Bitcoin?

Increased margin requirements for gold futures enhance its stability by reducing leveraged positions, helping stabilize prices amidst volatility. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s variable margin requirements often lead to significant price adjustments based on traders’ liquidity and risk appetite.

Is Bitcoin’s future more promising with evolving financial frameworks?

Bitcoin’s future success hinges on broader acceptance within financial frameworks, potentially reducing its volatility and enhancing its standing as a legitimate store of value. However, achieving this requires navigating regulatory landscapes and overcoming existing market volatility concerns.

Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:

To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:

Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:

I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities

(I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.

The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.

A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.

（II）Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.

Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.

II. Sound Work Mechanism

(III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.

(IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.

III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal

(5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.

(6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.

(7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.

(8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.

（IX） Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.

（X） Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.

（XI） Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.

（XII） Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.

IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities

（XIII） Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.

（XIV） Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.

(15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.

V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation

(16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.

(17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.

VI. Legal Responsibility

(18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.

(19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.

This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.

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