Bitcoin has fallen below $65,000, with the Federal Reserve meeting approaching, and structural concerns and leverage risks resonating in Strategy

Bitcoin continues to be under pressure amid macro uncertainty and institutional funds' wait-and-see sentiment, with prices hovering around $64,500, down about 2% for the day. The market is awaiting the results of the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting, which will be chaired by Kevin Warsh for the first time, with widespread expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Analysts point out that the focus of this meeting has shifted from "whether to cut interest rates" to "policy path and inflation signals." Current U.S. inflation is still considered to be at a near three-year high, and changes in energy prices and geopolitical situations have kept the market cautious about future policy directions. On-chain and institutional pressure is showing synchronized signs.

Concerns surrounding Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continue to ferment, with its preferred stock STRC dropping to $91.79 on June 16, over 8% below its par value of $100, seen as a signal of weakened corporate Bitcoin buying power. Although the spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of about $10.1 million on June 16, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing the main increment, the scale of funds is still significantly lower than in previous phases, indicating limited buying momentum. Market research firms Bitfinex and QCP point out that Bitcoin's recent rebound is more of a "technically driven recovery due to exhausted selling pressure," rather than driven by new demand.

In the derivatives market, implied volatility for options has risen, and skew has shifted towards bearish protection, indicating that traders are pricing in tail risks. In terms of price structure, Bitcoin is currently considered to be oscillating in the range of $60,000 to $68,000. If the Federal Reserve signals a more hawkish stance or institutional buying weakens further, it may pull back to the $62,000 to $63,000 range. Overall, the current market presents a combination structure of "macro waiting + institutional marginal weakening + enhanced derivatives defense," with the short-term direction still relying on FOMC policy signals and the situation of ETF and corporate funds flowing back in.