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10x Research: Bitcoin falls below $69,000, derivatives market shifts to defense, downside risks intensify
10x Research published an analysis on platform X indicating that Bitcoin has fallen below the key price level of $69,000, with a significant shift in market structure and notable signs of trader position adjustments.
Futures traders have significantly closed long positions, and the funding rate has turned deeply negative. Meanwhile, option flows have clearly shifted towards downside protection, short-term volatility has risen back to mid-range, and skew remains negative, reflecting the market's ongoing demand for hedging against downside risks. 10x Research added that the current market is no longer trading around the expectation of breaking above $75,000; faster-reacting traders in the derivatives market have already adjusted their positions, and the overall market is preparing for uncertainty and potentially larger fluctuations.
On a macro level, the market has begun to factor in interest rate hike expectations, while the Federal Reserve continues to signal rate cuts, a divergence that is difficult to sustain in the long term. If the oil price shock further evolves into a growth shock, risk assets may come under pressure. The key price range has entered a sensitive phase, and if it is breached, the downward trend may accelerate.
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